CNN
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Japan’s ruling party will elect its new leader on Friday, with the winner set to become the country’s next prime minister.
Out of a record nine candidates, the three front-runners are fighting a very close race that could end in a runoff.
The winner will assume leadership of the world’s fourth-largest economy at a time when Japan faces growing security challenges in the region and friction with neighbors including China, a weaker yen and higher living costs due to high inflation.
Among the favorites to lead the long-ruling, corrupt Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are conservative Economic Security Minister Sane Takaichi, who could become the country’s first female prime minister; Shinjiro Koizumi, a charismatic young surfer from a famous political dynasty; and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is running for the fifth and final post.
The conservative LDP has ruled Japan almost continuously since its founding in 1955. With a majority in the lower house, the LDP’s chosen candidate will be approved when Japan’s parliament, the Diet, meets in October.
General elections are scheduled for next year, but the winning candidate could call a snap election before then. Some reports suggest that this may happen before the US presidential election in November.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been out of the running since his surprise announcement last month that he was stepping down following a series of political scandals that prompted calls for his resignation.
The winner will be tasked with improving the LDP’s image ahead of those general elections.
In recent months the ruling party has been embroiled in one of Japan’s biggest political scandals in decades.
Two of the most influential factions in the LDP have been accused of failing to properly declare their income and expenses and, in some cases, of diverting political funds to lawmakers.
Scandals surrounding several high-ranking officials have not helped, with some accused of electoral law violations or linked to past defamatory comments against minorities.
Kishida tried to do damage control last year by replacing several cabinet ministers and eliminating his own party faction.
With the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the new prime minister will navigate Japan’s relationship with a new U.S. leader at a time of rising security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly assertive China and a belligerent North Korea.
Partnership with Japan has long been central to US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, and Kishida this year expanded Tokyo’s defense cooperation with its key ally.
“It’s safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi and Koizumi will do very well, but I can’t say which of the three will win the race,” Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at the University of Tokyo, told Reuters. “I don’t think we knew until the last minute.”
One Japan resident with roots in Takaichi is Tadashi Miyazawa, 50, who spoke to CNN from Tokyo and said he was watching the race “closely.”
“I want Sane Tagaychi to become the Prime Minister. I want her to solve the problem of the poor in Japan,” he said.
Meanwhile, Emi Uchibori, 67, said she supported Ishiba, saying, “We need a leader who can lead Japan firmly into the future.”
“I hope that Japan’s elderly society and social welfare will be improved. In terms of diplomacy, I would like to see Japan deal with issues with China, Russia and North Korea,” he said.
candidates
If the 63-year-old Takaichi wins, it will be a significant moment for Japan, where men continue to dominate politics and boardrooms.
But such success may not herald a new progressive era. The political veteran is a staunch conservative on the right wing of the party and has pledged to prioritize economic growth. She also opposed legislation allowing married women to keep their maiden names, and the Conservatives described the late former British leader Margaret Thatcher as a role model.
He is a protégé of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe and a supporter of his eponymous economic policies, and has been similarly hawkish on security issues in favor of an amendment to the country’s pacifist constitution.
Takaichi’s visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni shrine – which commemorates Japan’s 2.4 million war dead, including convicted war criminals – sparked protests from South Korea and China, which suffered from the country’s expansionist occupation in the first half of the 20th century.
His plans to boost Japan’s economy include cutting interest rates, after the Bank of Japan raised rates this year, and he has called for “strategic” fiscal spending to boost jobs and household incomes, according to Reuters.
Koizumi, 43, is the American-educated, charismatic son of popular former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and, if elected, would be Japan’s youngest leader.
Koizumi has cast himself as a reformer – like his father – and has promised to call a general election. He said he would continue the economic policies of outgoing President Kishita.
Critics have pointed to his lack of experience in domestic politics and international relations, and an economic plan that is considered thin on details.
But Koizumi’s star power has made him popular with the public, especially among young voters and women.
She has supported legislation allowing married women to keep their maiden names, and is in favor of women acceding to the imperial throne, which is currently not allowed in Japan. Koizumi hit the headlines when he became the country’s first cabinet member to take paternity leave – just two weeks, but a significant shift in Japan’s work culture means many new fathers take none.
Ishiba, 67, is a veteran politician and active on security issues. He has called for an Asian version of the NATO defense bloc to counter threats from China and North Korea, calling for Japan to reduce its reliance on nuclear power in favor of renewables.
In a political culture that prizes conformity, Ishiba has long been willing to criticize and go against his own party. That willingness to speak out made him a powerful adversary within the LDP, but also endeared him to grassroots members and the public.
He sits on the Progressive wing of the Conservative Party.
